Hurricane season begins with a challenging forecast

RICHMOND, Va. (WWBT) - Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off June 1, and mixed climate signals make this year’s seasonal forecast more challenging than usual with a wider range of outcomes.

The expected return of El Niño during hurricane season could make it harder for tropical systems to form in the Atlantic. There is about a 90% chance of El Niño developing by the end of summer into the fall when hurricane season typically peaks. El Niño refers to warmer than average ocean waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

Those warmer-than-average Pacific waters in an El Niño year typically cause increased wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean, which usually means fewer Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes than average. There are typically more hurricanes than average in the Eastern Pacific during El Niño.

On the other hand, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are running above average across almost the entire ocean basin. These warmer-than-average water temperatures provide more fuel for hurricanes to potentially develop and grow stronger, as long as there is not too much wind shear.

We have also been in the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) since the mid-1990s. The warm phase of this climate driver can also lead to stronger hurricanes. This is partly why seven out of the last eight Atlantic hurricane seasons were above average.

The expectation among leading hurricane experts is for these mixed climate signals to somewhat offset each other and result in a hurricane season that is near average.

The official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast is for an average season, while the hurricane researchers at Colorado State University call for a slightly below-average season.

NOAA calls for a 40% chance of an average season, a 30% chance for an above-average season, and a 30% chance for a below-average season.

The total number of tropical storms and hurricanes is not all that important. It only takes one storm hitting a populated land area for the hurricane season to become significant.

The exact track of tropical systems cannot be predicted with much skill more than about one week ahead of time. For these reasons, Virginians and everyone near the eastern and southern U.S. coastline should be prepared for hurricane season every year.

One easy thing you can do now to prepare is to download the NBC12 First Alert weather app to get updates on any tropical systems that could be headed our way. You can find the app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.

> Download the NBC12 First Alert Weather App

You should also have an emergency supply kit ready with non-perishable food, water, flashlights and other necessities.

You can find the list of tropical storm and hurricane names for the 2023 season below. The list rotates every six years, so if some of these names look familiar, they were used in the past (as recently as 2017). Names are only retired from use if a storm is especially destructive.

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