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Atlantic tropical activity likely ramps up soon

After a lull in activity for the last several weeks, storm activity will return soon
Published: Aug. 4, 2021 at 12:44 PM EDT|Updated: Aug. 4, 2021 at 2:56 PM EDT
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RICHMOND, Va. (WWBT) - Tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic is expected to increase ramp up over the next several weeks.

After an active start to the season, there has been a quiet stretch in the tropical Atlantic for the second half of July. The last time there was an active tropical system in the Atlantic was July 9 when Elsa dissipated into a post-tropical system. But don’t expect that to last long.

“After a record-setting start, the Atlantic 2021 hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator in a press release on Wednesday.

As we approach mid-August, we’re entering a time of year that is historically much more favorable for tropical storms and hurricane development. Based on forecast model guidance, this year appears likely to follow suit.

There is historically a sharp increase in tropical storm and hurricane frequency from mid...
There is historically a sharp increase in tropical storm and hurricane frequency from mid August through early September, and this year looks to be no different.(WWBT)

NOAA released its updated forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, and they are now calling for 15-21 named storms, with seven to ten hurricanes forecast and three to five of those are expected to be major hurricanes. This is in line with the forecast from the renowned hurricane experts at Colorado State University, who predict 20 named storms, nine hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. These numbers include the five storms already named this year.

“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The ocean water in the Atlantic is plenty warm enough for tropical storm and hurricane formation, and other atmospheric factors (decreased wind shear, more vigorous low-pressure systems coming off the coast of Africa in the eastern Atlantic) are expected to become more favorable for storms as well.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 15 to 21 named storms in the...
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 15 to 21 named storms in the Atlantic in 2021. That number includes the five storms already named this year.(WWBT)

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Fred, followed by Grace and Henri (pronounced ahn-REE)

Fred will be the next name used from the 2021 list of hurricane names.
Fred will be the next name used from the 2021 list of hurricane names.(WWBT)

Be sure to stay informed this hurricane season by downloading the NBC12 First Alert Weather App. You can find it for free and the app store or Google play store.

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