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After warm weather this week, pattern could turn cooler for Virginia

There’s a strong signal for cooler weather in the second half of April across Central Virginia
Published: Apr. 6, 2021 at 2:14 PM EDT
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RICHMOND, Va. (WWBT) - After a warmer than average start to the month of April, there are signs of cool weather returning in the second half of April across Virginia.

The European forecast model ensemble mean shows cooler than average weather across much of the southern U.S. starting around April 15 and continuing into the last week of April. The GFS ensemble shows a similar signal for cooler than average weather.

When there’s good agreement among the Euro and GFS ensembles, that gives us higher confidence to predict cooler weather one to two weeks in advance.

The European forecast model ensemble shows cooler than average temperatures (in blue) across...
The European forecast model ensemble shows cooler than average temperatures (in blue) across much of the deep south during the second half of April.(weathermodels.com)

The Climate Prediction Center’s 10 to 14 day temperature outlook (for April 13 to 19) is starting to show this signal for cooler than average weather. Keep in mind the average high in mid to late April is in the low 70s, so below average weather could mean highs in the 60s or 50s.

Cooler weather is expected in the second half of April. We may even need to watch for another...
Cooler weather is expected in the second half of April. We may even need to watch for another frost/freeze that could threaten plants that are susceptible to cold.(WWBT)

It’s too early to know for sure if the cooldown will pose a threat for a frost/freeze, but this outlook for cooler weather is a reminder we can have frosty temperatures at any time until the end of April.

NBC12′s Andrew Freiden gave the First Alert a few weeks ago that it’s not completely safe to plant tomatoes and other vegetables that are susceptible to frost until May 1 in Central Virginia.

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