RICHMOND, Va. (WWBT) - It will likely turn sharply colder for Christmas Day, but the chances for a White Christmas are trending down.
A White Christmas is officially defined as 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST. It does not actually have to be snowing on Christmas Day to qualify as a White Christmas.
Based on historical chances, in any given year there is a 7% chance of a White Christmas in Richmond. It has been 11 years since the last time we had a White Christmas (December 25, 2009). We think the chance for a White Christmas this year is decreasing (we’re giving it a 10% chance right now).
The GFS (American model) illustrates a cold front with a blast of frigid air arriving Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. But unlike the previous “runs” of this forecast model, it no longer shows much moisture/precipitation after the cold air arrives, which leads to a cold but dry Christmas.
The most recent run of the European forecast model agrees on the cold blast for Christmas (high temperatures only in the low 30s), and it does not have accumulating snow either.
The NBC12 First Alert Weather team will keep you posted with any changes. Be sure to download the NBC12 First Alert Weather app for updates as we get closer!
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