CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) - UVA Center for Politics' Crystal Ball webinar series released its final election forecast ahead of tomorrow’s trip to the polls.
The forecasters see the Presidential election slightly favoring Joe Biden.
“If the President is going to win a second term, he’s going to need the polls even more wrong than many of them were in 2016,” Center for Politics Communications Director Kyle Kondik said. “He’s going to need a really big Election Day, too. Turnout, I think, to counteract a lot of the good Democratic numbers that we’ve seen in the early in mail-in voting across the country.”
In central Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District, what they called one of the closest congressional races in the country, they give the edge to Bob Good, despite recent positive polling for the Webb campaign.
“I’s extremely close, and I’m expecting a pretty close outcome,” Kondik explained. “It’s just, I think, the political geography of the district is, and the political leaning of the district, it just gives a little bit of advantage to Good.”
The forecast also predicts Senator Mark Warner will defeat Republican challenger Daniel Gade, on the way to Democrats taking a narrow lead in the Senate.
“The public numbers generally suggest that the Joe Biden is a decent chance to crack double digits in Virginia,” Kondik said. “I would think that Mark Warner also has a decent chance to crack double digits.”
Election results will start rolling in after the polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday. All results are preliminary until certified.