Lull in tropical storm/hurricane activity expected for next two weeks

Atmospheric conditions in the tropics will become less favorable for tropical development in late September

A lull in tropical activity is expected the next couple of weeks

RICHMOND, Va. (WWBT) - After a very active August and September, a much needed lull in tropical storm and hurricane activity is expected to take hold for the next two weeks.

A “strong convectively suppressed Kelvin wave” will be passing the tropical Atlantic in the next 10 to 14 days. In plain English, that means sinking air over the Atlantic will discourage the development of thunderstorms and tropical systems.

These Kelvin waves are one of the biggest factors forecasters look at for determining the chances of tropical development in the short to medium range forecast. As a result, we have a high degree of confidence there will be little to no new tropical activity in the next couple of weeks.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane season continues through the end of November, and once this Kelvin wave passes, activity may ramp up again from mid to late October.

In fact, if you look closely at this graph you can see a “second peak” of tropical storm and hurricane season in mid October, so the U.S. is not out of the woods yet.

We're past the peak of the tropical storm/hurricane season, but mid-October sometimes brings a second peak of tropical activity.
We're past the peak of the tropical storm/hurricane season, but mid-October sometimes brings a second peak of tropical activity. (Source: WWBT)

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