FIRST ALERT: Chance of tropical development near the Bahamas lowers

FIRST ALERT: Chance of tropical development near the Bahamas lowers
The chances of tropical development have decreased to just 10%. (Source: WMBF)

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas for a low chance of tropical development over the next few days.

The chances of tropical development have decreased to just 10%.
The chances of tropical development have decreased to just 10%. (Source: WMBF)

In the latest special tropical development outlook issued this morning, the National Hurricane Center stated that the area “of low pressure that extends from South Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves northwestward, and then northward over the Florida peninsula and near the southeast United States coast during the next day or so.”

This system is forecast to merge with a cold front later this weekend as it passes well east of the Carolina Coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula during the next day or so, with some scattered showers and a few storms at times across the Carolinas on Friday.

A few showers and storms are likely Friday as tropical moisture passes near by.
A few showers and storms are likely Friday as tropical moisture passes near by. (Source: WMBF)

The chance of tropical formation through the next 48 hours has been lowered to 10 percent.

Tropical development during the month of May is not unheard of and typically occurs once every two to three years. Two early season tropical storms have impacted the Carolinas in recent years.

(Source: WMBF)

Tropical Storm Bonnie was a weak but persistent tropical storm that brought heavy rains to southern SC in May of 2016. Bonnie meandered over South Carolina for two days. Bonnie brought heavy rains and widespread floods to the Southeastern United States. Rainfall totals hit 6 inches in much of southern South Carolina, and exceeded 10 inches in some areas. Flooding resulted in the closure of the southbound lanes of I-95 In Jasper County, SC.

Tropical Storm Ana became the earliest tropical storm to ever make landfall in the US when it came ashore near North Myrtle Beach in May of 2015.

A relatively rare early season storm, it developed as a subtropical storm north of the Bahamas, and intensified with peak winds of 60 mph early on May 9. Sustained in part by the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, Ana made landfall along near North Myrtle Beach on May 10 making Ana the earliest U.S. landfalling system on record. Overall, damage from the storm was minor. Heavy rainfall up to 6 inches was reported and gusty winds affected parts of the Carolinas. Minor beach erosion impacted the Grand Strand and gusty winds damaged trees and powerlines, causing sporadic power outages.

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