It looks like the first day of March will arrive with showers for central Virginia, though the risk for severe weather appears to be low (except southeastern corner of the state). Winds will pick up late Thursday night into Friday as the storm redevelops offshore well east of the mid-Atlantic coast.
The various computer models are in agreement that a significant, but complex storm will be affecting parts of the East, with greatest impacts likely north of Virginia.That said, the models do show rain and some wind over the area. Due to "dry-slotting" of air over central Virginia, rainfall amounts should stay under half an inch, with heavier amounts over southeastern Va .
Below are the model forecast maps. We'll start Thursday with some rain.
During the afternoon, that slot of drier air should work in from the west, and we may even see breaks in the clouds. A secondary, short-lived line of showers may develop around sunset as a cold front wraps through.
Late Thursday night and Friday will be breezy to windy at times, with gusts of up to 25+ possible across northern and eastern Va. Winds over the Bay and coast will be notably higher than inland.
While we have dropped the "First Alert Weather Day" for Thursday, we think the winds Friday along the eastern part of the state could end up being the more notable feature of this storm's impacts on the region. Keep tabs on the latest forecasts via our NBC12 weather app and on TV.